Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance of Pakistan: The Cointegration and Causality approach

Abdur Rehman, Muhammad Tariq, Shuaib Ahmed

Abstract


FDI is a bridge between the world markets and local market and works as a way to increase the capabilities of the host country through investments that help in transfer of technology and creation of employment opportunities. The aim of this paper was to investigate the nexus of Foreign Direct Investment and the Export performance in the economic settings of Pakistan along in the presence of explanatory variables, based on well-established economic theory and long standing relationships. Supplementing the variables into a linear regression model, tested under the OLS and checked for the assumptions of normally and identically distributed errors, it was found that exports are positively affected by FDI and CPI whereas negatively affected by the interest rates in the case of Pakistan. Furthermore the long run relationship between the variables has been tested under the Johensen Cointegration test, which suggest that a long run relationship exist between the variables. Finally the direction of causality has been investigated with the help of Granger Causality test, indicating a bidirectional causality between CPI and interest rate, exports and interest rate, unidirectional causality from exports to CPI, CPI to GDP growth rate, interest rate to GDP growth rate, exports to FDI and exports to GDP growth rate. 

Key words: FDI, Exports, Causality, Cointegration, Pakistan.


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